Nation’s population shifting towards low-tax states in south and west
Pennsylvania will lose a congressional seat in 2012, according to figures released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Despite a 3.4 percent increase in population over the last 10 years, Pennsylvania’s growth is significantly behind the national population growth of 9.7 percent. The population of the state climbed to 12,702,379, an increase of 421,000 residents since the 2000 census.
This marks the sixth consecutive census in which Pennsylvania loses at least one seat in Congress.
Pennsylvania is not the only northeastern state to lose representation in Washington. Two of Pennsylvania’s neighbors – New York and Ohio – will see their congressional delegations reduced by two seats in 2012. New Jersey will also lose one seat in Congress.
Other states losing one seat are Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana and Iowa.
Kevin Shivers, executive director of the Pennsylvania branch of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), said the census is evidence states with pro-business environments tend to gain population.
“There are a number of states that have seen out-migration of citizens over the years. It’s because people go where the jobs are,” said Mr. Shivers. Mr. Shivers pointed to Pennsylvania’s 9.99 percent corporate income tax – the highest such tax in the nation – as a major factor in the equation.
He said Pennsylvania has an economic opportunity to reverse decades of eroding population with development of the natural gas industry in the state’s Marcellus Shale region and more pro-business policies for existing industries.
Scott Hodge, president of the Tax Foundation, a Washington D.C. tax policy center, said taxes are one of many factors which influences where people choose to live.
“There are many reasons why people move from state to state and taxes certainly play a role in that,” said Mr. Hodge. “But this is also part of a larger trend away of people moving away from the northeast and the Rust Belt in general.”
Southern and Western states, which gained population and congressional representation in the newest census, generally have lower tax rates than Northeastern and Midwestern states, which are experiencing slower growth.
States which will gain one congressional seat each in 2012 are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. Florida will add two congressional seats and Texas will add four new seats, the largest change for any state in the nation.
Texas does not have a personal income tax, while both Florida and Nevada score well in Tax Foundation rankings, which analyze personal and business tax burdens of the states.
Pennsylvania has a relatively low personal income tax rate, but the state’s 9.99 percent corporate tax is the highest in the country. Overall, the organization ranks Pennsylvania as the 11th worst tax environment in the nation.
“While it might be a good place to be as a worker, Pennsylvania is a bad place to be if you’re an employer,” said Mr. Hodge. “And you need two to tango.”
If a state’s population shrinks significantly, tax increases are likely and those who remain behind in states like Pennsylvania, New York and Ohio will bear the effects of the smaller tax base, he said.
Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi (R-Chester) said the state needs to focus on creating jobs to bring people back to Pennsylvania and keep college graduates in the state.
Mr. Pileggi said the General Assembly and governor-elect Tom Corbett would reverse the population trends by “enacting policies to foster job creation and overall economic growth.”
Outgoing Gov. Ed Rendell, who presided over the state government for most of the past decade, chose to focus on the positives from the census data released Tuesday.
“I’m gratified that we have gained population, particularly in the city of Philadelphia, which added people after decades of decline,” said the governor in a statement.
In addition to congressional representation and state taxes, federal funding for many programs are tied to census data, so a relative loss of population can reduce a state’s funding levels. Among the programs affected are Medicaid, federal highway aid, low-income housing programs, and special education funding.
While population counts are critical to those and other federal programs, other formulas which require states to maintain current levels of funding and minimum allocation provisions can mitigate the effect of population changes.
Determining the impact of the census on federal funding formulas will take time to determine, said Gary Tuma, Mr. Rendell’s spokesperson.
Losing congressional seats is nothing new in Pennsylvania.
Following the 1910 census, Pennsylvania had 36 congressional seats, twice the number the state will have after redistricting next year.
By 1960, Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation was reduced to 27 seats, which fell to 21 seats after the 1990 census.
In the 2000 census, Pennsylvania lost two more seats to bring the state to its current 19 congressional districts. The 2010 census marks the first time since 1940 – when the state did not gain or lose any seats – that Pennsylvania did not lose multiple congressional seats.
The U.S. population increased 9.7 percent from 2000 to 2010, according to the Census Bureau. The nation’s population as of April 1, 2010 was 308,745,538.
