This story originally published November 4, 2010

Editor’s Note: This story appears today as part of the PA Independent’s Year in Review series. This week, we will re-post several of our top stories from 2010. The article below was originally published on November 4, 2010.

Two days after the election, Pennsylvanians are still trying to understand what happened to Democrats and what that means now that Republicans have control of the legislature and governorship.

Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College, said the largest swing toward Republicans in 40 years could reveal divisions within the party caucus while the Democrats search for new leadership.

“I think [the Democrats] are stunned by the degree of the defeat,” said Mr. Madonna. “This has stunned them, and I think the Democrats are reeling from the rebuke. It’s just a question of whether with this instability in the caucus they’re going to have to resolve the eastern-western divisions.”

State House Democrats lost Majority Leader Todd Eachus (Luzerne) after Speaker of the House Keith McCall (Carbon) did not run for re-election, leaving them without their two most senior leaders.

Joseph DiSarro, professor and pollster at Washington and Jefferson College, said the shift away from Democrats in a state with a 1.2 million Democrat registration edge may be an indication “Reagan” Democrats are moving with Independents back to the Republican Party.

“I did a poll with my students here in Washington County which is a 1.7 to 1 edge of Democrats over the Republicans,” said Mr. DiSarro. “This county went completely republican, not only for the governor but also for Pat Toomey.”

He said the Republicans taking back control of the state House and governorship, and retaining control of the state Senate, puts them in a difficult position even while giving them an advantage with redistricting control.

“The Republicans will have a difficult time, and therein will lie the opportunity for the Democrats to be critical,” Mr. DiSarro. “Unless the Republicans do have substantive policies they are able to get through the legislature, to attack the structural problems in a rational and positive manner, the Democrats will become what the Republicans were – critical of the administration to try to get back in power in two years.”

Dr. Thomas Baldino, a professor at Wilkes University, agreed with Mr. DiSarro and said the Democrats will wait two to four years from now to point out the Republicans as responsible for anything that goes wrong.

“They’ve been in the minority party position before,” said Dr. Baldino. “This is a particularly difficult time to be in the minority because they’re going to be redrawing districts. Unlike Congress where the minority party has some methods to slow or block legislation, in the Pennsylvania legislature there are fewer mechanisms. The Democrats will attempt to draw attention whenever possible to the legislation proposed by Republicans they deem to be wrong and try to hold their members together in a block.”

Among the problems Mr. DiSarro identified as high priorities for the Republicans are the pending infrastructure repairs to bridges and roads, the cost of state employee pensions on the commonwealth and on municipalities and the overall tax burden created by an increase in budget size from $24.5 billion eight years ago to over $28 billion in fiscal year 2010-2011.

Mr. DiSarro said the first idea proposed by Republican legislators and Tom Corbett, governor-elect, to privatize the state liquor boards, was a step in the right. The next step, he suggested, would not be so clear, especially with the immediate $2 billion state deficit created by the end of the federal stimulus dollars in 2011.

“It gets more difficult,” he said. “I think the culture is going to change. I think this election demonstrates that we have to move in a different direction unless we want to become a smaller state, and the only growth sector is government. The only growth sector has been government, unless you take Marcellus shale. The Democrats are going to have a tough time coming back.”