Analysts: Sen. Casey will be difficult to beat
By Eric Boehm | PA Independent
Laureen Cummings, the head of the Scranton Tea Party, declared her candidacy for U.S. Senate during a weekend radio program.
During a guest appearance Saturday on The David Madeira Show on WTRW-FM, Cummings said she would seek the Republican nomination for Senate in 2012. Ultimately, she hopes to unseat first-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Penn.
“I think we need more patriots (in Congress)," said Cummings. “Next election, we need more patriots to get out there.”
Cummings is the second person to officially declare for the race, following Marc Scaringi, a Dauphin County lawyer and former staffer to one-time U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum. Casey defeated Santorum in 2006.
Cummings said her experience as a nurse gives her a better perspective on the national health care debate than Casey, whom she said has not read the entire health reform law.
“I’ve read the health care bill, and I know he hasn’t,” said Cummings. “And I’ve read the cap and trade bill, and I know he hasn’t because I’ve approached him about both of them.”
Casey's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Any Republican challenger to Casey faces a difficult battle, according to political analysts and polls.
A March 6 poll from Muhlenberg College showed Casey with a 48 percent approval rating compared to only 22 percent disapproving. The poll showed 48 percent of likely voters believe Casey deserves to be re-elected, while 24 percent said he did not deserve to be re-elected, and 25 percent were unsure.
When compared to a generic Republican on a sample ballot, Casey prevailed 41 percent to 27 percent.
The Muhlenberg poll surveyed 395 individuals with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.
Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College, said Casey’s position as a “pro-life Democrat” makes him difficult to beat.
“He’s not an ideological lightning rod, and the fact that he is pro-life on abortion means he doesn’t galvanize the social conservatives against him,” said Madonna. “I think it would take a horrific political environment for the Democrats, like in this past year, for the Republicans to have a good shot at winning.”
Charlie Gerow, a Harrisburg-based Republican strategist, said the general view of Casey is that he will be a formidable opponent in 2012 because he is likable with voters. However, the big Republican wins in Pennsylvania in 2010 – when the GOP flipped five congressional seats and a Senate seat from the Democrats – means there should be some in-roads for Republican candidates in 2012, Gerow said.
Gerow doubted the ability of lower-profile Republican candidates to match Casey’s ability to raise money or to match his name recognition. Casey – whose father was governor from 1987 to 1995 – already had more than $1.3 million in his campaign war chest at the end of 2010, according to the Federal Election Commission.
So far, the Republican field for the 2012 Senate race is up in the air, with several names rumored but no declarations.
State Sen. Jake Corman, R-Centre, is considered the front runner by GOP activists, though he has yet to declare for the race. In a Jan. 11 poll from Public Policy Polling, 3 percent of Republican voters polled said Corman was the best bet to challenge Casey.
The PPP poll surveyed 400 Pennsylvania Republican voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
The same poll had former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum scoring highest, with 45 percent of Republican voters believing he was the best choice.
Santorum has given all the appearances of a run for president in 2012, though he has yet to formally declare. If he does, it would prevent him from running for his old Senate seat against Casey.
Another Tea Party favorite, former state Rep. Sam Rohrer, has not ruled out a run against Casey. Rohrer recently was named state director of the Pennsylvania chapter of Americans for Prosperity, a national grassroots conservative organization.
Reached by phone Friday, Rohrer said he currently is not setting his sights on a Senate run.
“It’s not something that I am pursuing. Right now I’m focused on Americans for Prosperity,” said Rohrer.
Madonna, the political scientist, said Rohrer would be a “legitimate challenger” to Casey because of his fervent support among the Keystone State’s conservative faction, but doubted whether Rohrer could gain enough support in the critical Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats and moderate Republicans are the majority.
Rohrer won 31 percent of the statewide vote in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary, but was defeated by Tom Corbett, who would go on to be elected governor in November.
Other Republican names rumored to be in the race include U.S. Reps. Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, state Sen. Kim Ward, R-Westmoreland, and former Gov. Mark Schweiker.
Ward said Monday she was definitely not in the race and had no plans to enter it. She said she is happy with the work she is doing in the state Senate, though she does have a favorite.
"I wish Mark Schweiker would run," said Ward.
When removing Santorum from the equation, Schweiker was the top choice of Republican voters in January, though he scored 18 percent on the PPP poll.
The only declared candidate in the field – Scaringi – scored only 1 percent regardless of whether Santorum was included.
