Monroe County expected to flip from Barletta’s district to Holden’s
By Eric Boehm | PA Independent
HARRISBURG — With less than five months until Pennsylvania's primary election date, voters and candidates are still in the dark as to where the state’s 18 congressional districts will be located.
And when the new maps become public, some of the most important changes will be in the northeast, where U.S. Reps. Lou Barletta, R-District 11, and Tim Holden, D-District 17, could see their districts altered to make both incumbents safer for the next 10 years.
The plans for the new districts remain behind closed doors for now, as Republicans attempt to draw districts that will allow them to hold onto gains made in the 2010 election. Republicans picked up five districts, including the two districts that make up the northeast corner.
“It’s a clear consolidation of power for the Republicans right now, who have the key to the vehicle with control of Harrisburg,” said Christopher Borick, a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.
Before the end of the year, lawmakers here will have to approve a new congressional district map. Because of a decline in population as shown in the national census, Pennsylvania will lose one congressional district, going from 19 to 18 districts.
On Monday, one of the most pressing issues facing lawmakers will be the passage of a reapportionment bill that will divide the state into 18 congressional districts for the next decade. And the process promises to be a highly political one with Republicans holding all the cards.
In the northeast, the changes will be driven by the desire to protect incumbents not the need to eliminate one district — likely to be one of the western districts, where population has declined the most.
When it comes to protecting incumbents, the 11th district is at the top of the GOP list. The district, held by Barletta, includes Columbia, Monroe and Carbon counties and most of Democrat-heavy Luzerne County.
The most likely change seems to be moving Barletta’s district south and west as much as possible and sliding Holden's central Pennsylvania district north into Monroe and Luzerne counties to take Barletta’s place.
As a result, both Republican and Democratic incumbents could emerge as winners.
Moving Barletta southwest into more Republican-friendly territory will help the conservative former mayor of Hazleton — who made headlines in 2006 for passing an ordinance forbidding illegal immigrants to live or work in the city — win re-election.
He defeated longtime U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-District 11, in 2010, thanks to the national Republican wave and anti-incumbency fervor directed at the incumbent, who had served in Congress since 1985.
But Barletta could have a difficult time winning a second term in his current district, and making him safer figures to be a key part of the Republican redistricting plan, said Thomas Baldino, a professor of political science at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre.
“As the Barletta district is currently drawn, it’s favorable to Democrats. But if you draw it out west to pull some more Republicans,” Baldino said. “You can thin out the Democratic voters as you go west.”
Monroe County likely to switch
Simple geography would suggest that Monroe County, on the eastern edge of Barletta’s current district, would be removed from the district if the borders shift south and west.
There also are political concerns. Although Monroe County historically has been Republican-leaning, rapid population growth in the past decade has helped Democrats, Borick said.
Monroe County Commissioner Suzanne McCool, a Democrat, said she was informed by Democratic Party officials last week that most of Monroe County is expected to end up in Holden’s district.
That would concur with a report last week in the Scranton Times-Tribune, which said Republicans were aiming to expand Holden’s district to include Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and Monroe County while shifting Barletta south toward Perry and Dauphin counties. Sources in that story were not identified.
Holden gets protected
Republicans targeted Holden when they redrew the map in 2001, giving him a toss-up district with a tough GOP contender.
But Holden won in 2002 — and kept on winning for the rest of the decade — which could motivate Republicans to take a “if you can’t beat him, make him safer” approach, said Baldino.
Borick agreed that Republicans would make Holden safer by getting Democrats out of Barletta’s district.
“It’s not that Republicans love these Democratic congressmen, but by making them safer, they can make their own districts safer, and since they have the lion’s share of the districts in the state right now, that’s good for them,” Borick said.
Marino and Dent likely stable
Flipping portions of Barletta’s and Holden’s districts would not require many changes on the part of U.S. Rep. Tom Marino, R-District 10, who also occupies the northeastern corner of the state, Baldino said.
Marino would see his district remain similar to how it looks now — stretching from his hometown in Williamsport, across the mountains of rural northeastern Pennsylvania and wrapping around Scranton to pick up Wayne and Pike counties on the eastern border.
However, he could lose the portion of his district that includes Northumberland and Montour counties, as those regions would, in theory, could be part of Barletta’s new, more central district.
Borick said the district of U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, R-District 15, which includes all of Northampton and nearly all of Lehigh counties, could lose the small portion of the district in Montgomery County.
What comes next
The House State Government Committee, which would be the first step for any potential congressional redistricting proposal, has a meeting scheduled at 11 a.m. Dec. 5 here. After the map is made public, it will move through the legislative process in the same manner as any bill, requiring passage by the state House and Senate, and the signature of the governor.
For now, the maps are private, because state law does not require public hearings for congressional redistricting, unlike the drawing of state-level districts.
Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in Harrisburg, cautioned against either side overreacting to the new congressional map when it is made public.
“The new districts are rarely as good as some would hope or as bad as others would fear,” Gerow said.
This story was updated to correct the name of Monroe County Commissioner Suzanne McCool and the town of Hazleton at 7:02 p.m. on 12/1/11.
